Pilot project for numerical model of landslide in Zerafshan valley

Near to the village Vashan (Ayni district, Zerafshan valley) a landslide destroyed a large area of cultivated land and part of the access road. The landslide started partly in 1996. But in March 2005 after heavy rainfall an estimated volume of 4 mln cubic meter was sliding downwards.

Such an event builds a perfect base for a preliminary study applying numerical models to estimate the possible affected area of similar landslides in the area.

Based on the topographical maps 1:50’000, the contour lines and break lines were digitized, and a digital elevation model was calculated. The digital terrain model is, in combination with the information of the landslide (release line, volume, …), the main input into the numerical mode.

Vashan landslide June 2011 Digitized base information
Vashan landslide, Photograph June 2011 Digitized and interpolated base information of the region

Based on these information, the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF was running the numerical model of the landslide. The model provides the information about the extent, the flow height, the total volume and the velocity of the landslide.

The conducted model provides an almost perfect representation of the reality. The extent of the calculated landslide fits with the area affected by the landslide in reality. The following animations are showing the flow height, the extension and the velocity of the landslide.

Simulated flow height Simulated velocity

The results show that an application of such models would be also meaningful in other regions of Tajikistan to estimate the potential of damage and area affected by landslides or avalanches.

news/pilot_project_for_numerical_model_of_landslide_in_zerafshan_valley.txt · Last modified: 2013/11/11 14:29 by Yvo Weidmann
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